The Reduction Roadmap is an Earth-shot project which – for the first time ever - works to translate the Paris Agreement and the Planetary Boundary for Climate Change into industry-specific reduction targets for new Danish housing projects. The Reduction Roadmap identifies where we are today, where we need to go, and the speed at which we must reduce our carbon emissions to reach Earth’s safe operating space. The result is a science-based transformation tool and a call to action for the Danish building sector, working to align all building industry actors with commitment to the Paris Agreement.
The Reduction Roadmap is developed in a cross-sectoral partnership with advisors, research institutes, architects, and NGOs within the building industry and is based upon the latest scientific knowledge of anthropogenic human impact on the planet.
Since releasing the Reduction Roadmap 1.0 in September 2022, the global carbon budget has been halved.
To see the latest version of the roadmap with data from 2023 - the Reduction Roadmap 2.0 - please see the slideshow at the bottom of the front page.
If it’s your first time visiting this site, please only use this page to understand the background and methodology behind the Reduction Roadmap.
Planetary Boundaries
The Planetary Boundaries concept, defined by the Stockholm Resilience Center, makes visible a safe operating space for human impact on nine essential planetary systems on a global scale. Once planetary thresholds are transgressed there is an increased risk of unexpected, irreversible, and abrupt environmental changes. Today, we have already transgressed six out of the nine Planetary Boundaries. This means that we are in a zone of increasing risk and uncertainty about the future of life on planet Earth.
The Reduction Roadmap focuses on the impact of the building industry on the Planetary Boundary for Climate Change, which is affected by human emissions of greenhouse gases (CO₂eq). The Reduction Roadmap scales global greenhouse gas emission target levels, down to national, to industry-specific, to Danish housing - and finally to a target level.
Scaling global emissions by 96%
The Reduction Roadmap targets are based on findings documented in The Safe operating space for greenhouse gas emissions by Petersen, S. et al., (2022). Findings from this report tell us that globally we must reduce our emissions by 96% to reach the safe operating space, defined by the Planetary Boundaries. According to the IPCC AR6 (2021) report, we must do so within the next 7-14 years to stay within the Paris Agreement 1,5°C scenario for global warming.
Now is the time to act
If we continue emitting as we do today, we will use up the remaining carbon budget in the next 5 years. But if we begin reducing immediately, we can prolong the reduction timeline until between 2029 – 2036.
Whilst the targets are global, the allocation method can be tailored for any other industry or nation by replacing the pertinent data with new number sets. As such, the Reduction Roadmap should be seen as a tool and prescriptive method for anyone to scale emission levels in accordance with the Paris Agreement and Planetary Boundaries here in Denmark, and abroad.
How do we allocate for the Danish building industry?
Allocation Principle
The Reduction Roadmap allocates the global emission budget and targets for the building industry. As such, we scale from global, to national, to industry, to housing, down to target emission levels. We do so by illustrating "today's emissions" compared to “target emissions” levels. What we find is that a 96% reduction rate is needed for the building industry emissions.
Today’s emissions
Target emissions
Today’s global emissions
In 2019, 46.9 billion tons of CO₂eq were emitted globally. (Climate Watch, 2022).
Global emission target
The global carbon budget is 2.51 billion tons of CO₂eq per year (The Safe operating space for greenhouse gas emissions by Petersen, S. et al., 2022).
Today’s national emissions
Denmark emitted 44.9 million tons of CO₂eq in 2020 (EEA, 2022) exceeding the budget of 1.882.500 CO₂eq per year nearly 24 times.
National emission target
Denmark is allotted 0,075% of the global carbon budget (Paris Agreement, 2015). This equates to 1.882.500 tons CO₂eq per year for all carbon-producing activity in Denmark.
Today’s new housing emissions
New housing accounts for 3,3% of all Danish carbon emissions, which is equivalent to 1.481.700 tons CO₂eq per year (Reduction Roadmap, 2022).
New housing emission target
If new housing is allocated the same share of the Danish carbon allowance in the future, as today then new housing in Denmark is allocated 3,3% of the total Danish carbon allowance, equivalent to 62.123 tons CO₂eq per year. (Reduction Roadmap, 2022).
Today’s housing m² emissions
On average Denmark builds 3.072.000m² of new housing each year (Devici, N.et al, 2020). This leads to an average emission level for new housing in Denmark, 482kg CO₂eq/m².
Housing emission m² target
On average Denmark builds 3.072.000m² of new housing each year (Devici, N.et al, 2020). This leads to an average emission level for new housing in Denmark, 20,22kg CO₂eq/m².
Today’s LCA emissions
Based on a 50-year reference period, the median footprint of Danish housing is 9,6kg CO₂eq/m² per year.
LCA emission target
Based on a 50-year reference period, the target footprint of Danish housing is 0,4kg CO₂eq/m² per year.
The Reduction Roadmap is expressed in a stepped, linear reduction pathway and assumes a constant rate of construction. The vertical, y-axis represents the embodied carbon footprint of building materials, expressed in CO₂eq/m² per year. The horizontal x-axis represents time, beginning in 2020 and extending until the target level is reached. Today’s median emission level is 9,6kg CO₂eq/m² per year and is the starting point. The target emission level is 0,4 kg CO₂eq/m² per year is the ending point.
How long do we have to reach the target?
The illustration below is the Reduction Roadmap 1.0. The Reduction Roadmap 2.0 with data from 2023 is in the slideshow at the bottom of the front page.
A safe window for reducing emissions
What the Reduction Roadmap shows is that the starting point of “Today’s Emissions” is fixed to 9,6kg CO₂eq/m² per year, and the “Emissions Reduction Target” is fixed to 0,4kg CO₂eq/m² per year. The different likelihood scenarios of staying within the 1,5°C extend the timeframe for reaching target levels. What this means is that the building industry has a safe window to transition to low-carbon building solutions from 2029 - 2036. However, if we take more time, the likelihood of staying within 1,5°C decreases (from an 83% - 50% chance). As such, the faster we reach the target, the more likely we are to stay within the 1,5°C target.
Reduce emissions, while building at a constant rate
One reduction approach is that we reduce the carbon emission from the current level of 9,6kg CO₂eq m² per year to 0,4kg CO₂eq/ m² per year and continue as we do today with a constant rate of construction of 3.072.000 m² per year.
Same level of emissions, with a reduced rate of construction
A second reduction approach is that we continue construction with the same carbon emissions as today (9,6kg CO₂eq/ m² per year) and reduce the amount we build from 3.072.000 m² per year down to 130.000 m² per year equivalent to a 96% reduction.
Reduce emissions, while also reducing the rate of construction
Alternatively, if we follow the logic presented by Earth Overshoot Day, in which Denmark must reduce resource consumption from 4 to 1 (planet Earths) - we should reduce carbon emission from 9,6kg CO₂eq/m² per year down to 1,7kg CO₂eq/m² per year while at the same time reducing the rate of construction from 3.072.000 m² per year down to 770.000 m² per year.
We must change the goal.
The building industry already has many of the methods and planning tools we need to reduce emission levels in construction. We need to reimagine systems based on the finality of planetary resources so that frameworks such as building codes, construction contracts and financial mechanisms are based on a shift in mindset from prioritizing rapid growth to that of long-term regeneration.
Knowledge creation is key.
We are dependent on cross-sectoral collaborations to innovate building technology and methods at an accelerated rate. As we work towards the reduction target, we must remain aware of on-going scientific findings and agile in how we apply and exchange new knowledge with each other. As such, we must be coordinated in our approach to reducing carbon emissions, benchmarking our progress and open-sourcing best practice examples.
We must act with urgency.
On a global level human development operates outside of the commitment to the Paris Agreement and has surpassed the safe operating space for Climate Change. If we continue with business-as-usual, we will continue moving rapidly in the direction of planetary collapse. We now have a target to operate with respect to Planetary Boundaries and are therefore obligated to act with urgency.
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